Скорость мутаций в DYS436 действительно маленькая - 0.00018 на поколение. Скорости в 434 и 435 локусах еще не определены, в расчетах их приравнивают к средней скорости мутаций. Нашел варианты 0.0024 (Ferguson DNA) и 0.00492 (Rogers DNA). Думаю, что это неправильно.
В новой статье о генеалогических скоростях мутаций есть данные по обсуждаемым локусам: DYS434 4.04*10^(-4), DYS435 1.00*10^(-3), DYS436 3.84*10^(-4).
Mutability of Y-Chromosomal Microsatellites: Rates, Characteristics, Molecular Bases, and Forensic ImplicationsKaye N. Ballantyne1, Miriam Goedbloed1, Rixun Fang2, Onno Schaap1, Oscar Lao1, Andreas Wollstein1, 3, Ying Choi1, Kate van Duijn1, Mark Vermeulen1, Silke Brauer1, 4, Ronny Decorte5, Micaela Poetsch6, Nicole von Wurmb-Schwark7, Peter de Knijff8, Damian Labuda9, H?l?ne V?zina10, Hans Knoblauch11, R?diger Lessig12, Lutz Roewer13, Rafal Ploski14, Tadeusz Dobosz15, Lotte Henke16, J?rgen Henke16, Manohar R. Furtado2 and Manfred Kayser1
Abstract
Nonrecombining Y-chromosomal microsatellites (Y-STRs) are widely used to infer population histories, discover genealogical relationships, and identify males for criminal justice purposes. Although a key requirement for their application is reliable mutability knowledge, empirical data are only available for a small number of Y-STRs thus far. To rectify this, we analyzed a large number of 186 Y-STR markers in nearly 2000 DNA-confirmed father-son pairs, covering an overall number of 352,999 meiotic transfers. Following confirmation by DNA sequence analysis, the retrieved mutation data were modeled via a Bayesian approach, resulting in mutation rates from 3.78 10-4 (95% credible interval [CI], 1.38 10-5 2.02 10-3) to 7.44 10-2 (95% CI, 6.51 10-2 9.09 10-2) per marker per generation. With the 924 mutations at 120 Y-STR markers, a nonsignificant excess of repeat losses versus gains (1.16:1), as well as a strong and significant excess of single-repeat versus multirepeat changes (25.23:1), was observed. Although the total repeat number influenced Y-STR locus mutability most strongly, repeat complexity, the length in base pairs of the repeated motif, and the father's age also contributed to Y-STR mutability. To exemplify how to practically utilize this knowledge, we analyzed the 13 most mutable Y-STRs in an independent sample set and empirically proved their suitability for distinguishing close and distantly related males. This finding is expected to revolutionize Y-chromosomal applications in forensic biology, from previous male lineage differentiation toward future male individual identification.
http://www.cell.com/AJHG/abstract/S0002-9297(10)00419-2